We know how fast you’ll run your next race 👀

​@ajaxus I checked out your AItracker site. Looks very interesting. As I mentioned in my post I’ve been using the Garmin Race Predictor for a couple of years now and it’s been pretty good. Started looking at the Strava Performance Predictions when they introduced it last year, and as we all know it’s been terrible. I train and race on a regular basis and track every workout. I’m currently training for a marathon in April and will sign up for your plan to see how accurate it is. Looking forward to seeing what it shows. I’ll be sure to let you know how it works out. 

 ​@ajaxus I used your site after seeing your post last week. I was very hopeful, however the Performance Predictions are even worse that the Strava Predictions. I could easily go out today and run a sub 25 minute 5K, yet your prediction time is 28:10. Last week I ran a half marathon in 1:50, yet you are predicting I could do it in 2:05:12. A lot of the information on your site is interesting and I could see the benefit of it. However, that main thing I was addressing with Strava and the reply you posted was about the Performance Predictions and yours are way off.   

​@jimpep try Runalyze (website only, no app), if you feed it with enough data it's pretty much spot on.

​@jimpep appreciate the feedback and thanks for trying the tool. I looked at the data here is what was happening. It seems (could be an error in the ingestion) but your key races were not tagged as “race” in Strava so the engine ignore that max effort and defaulted to a more simplistic average() between all your runs. This way your races got mixed with the training runs (which are normally slower). Hence the predictions.

When the data is properly labeled as a race, the system knows you are max out and can give a proper formula.

I have it all corrected now with a new algorithm now where I have “smart detection”, if if your races are not tagged, I look for max out efforts the 5% percentile, and keywords in the titles. I just ran the algo on your training data and it comes up with.

Hope this helps and truly appreciate the feedback! I am focused on making this the best tool for marathon predictions.
 

​@ajaxus thanks for looking into that. Glad my feedback helped you to make this site better. The new predicted times make a lot more sense. I just went into Strava and updated my races  to “race”.